By Jonathan Lidskin
College football is on the horizon and while that is getting a ton of the focus in the gambling market at the moment, college basketball is fast approaching as well. We still have over two months until the season tips off and due to that, it’s difficult to find odds right now for taking any futures bets in college basketball. However, national title odds have been up for quite a while so I am going to give you some teams that I think have a much better chance to win the national title than Vegas is giving them (all odds according to FanDuel).
Rutgers 55-1 (1.79%)
Since Steve Pikiell took the job at Rutgers, he has had just one top-75 offense. However, in the last five seasons, he’s had three top-ten defenses and an additional top-20 defense. Most national champions are inside the top 25 in both adjusted offense and defense according to KenPom so the question is “How does Rutgers dramatically improve their offense?” Well, the best recruiting class in school history and one of the best in the country is probably a good place to start.
Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey completely changes the ceiling that Rutgers teams have had under Pikiell. Both, at different positions, are really good at creating for themselves and partially as a result draw extra help defensively to free up other guys. Harper in particular I think could lead the entire Big Ten in assists. Bailey to me is a different level of prospect than we typically see in a normal recruiting class and I believe he and Cooper Flagg at Duke are destined for big college years and great NBA careers.
If you go look back at the national champions of the past decade-plus of college basketball, having at least one and typically multiple NBA players is a prerequisite to winning the title. Rutgers is basically a lock to have multiple NBA players as well as a strong defense. I understand the willingness in today’s climate to bet against freshmen-led teams, but if Bailey and Harper are healthy, this will be Pikiell’s best team.
Oregon 65-1 (1.52%)
It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for Dana Altman since Chris Duarte left school. The Ducks missed back-to-back NCAA Tournaments and needed a Pac 12 Tournament Championship to make the tournament, but nearly reached a Sweet 16 once they got there. This Oregon team will have a lot of depth and a ton of potential if they stay healthy.
Yes, the loss of N’Faly Dante is big, but if we want to go back to the NBA player requirement, I think Kwame Evans has the potential to be a high draft choice as well as an All-American this season. Replacing Dante will be Nate Bittle who is a bit of an unknown as we’ve never seen him in a bigger role. Bittle played just six games last season after playing just 35% of the possible minutes in his sophomore season. At his apex, Bittle is an efficient offensive player who will be a solid rebounder and great rim protector. As they say though, the best ability is availability and that for him comes in the form of health and conditioning.
For Oregon to get to the level of an elite team, they will need to defend better, especially on the perimeter. The Ducks were 256th in opponent 3-point % last season, but they’ve tried to address that partially through the portal by adding T.J. Bamba and Ra’Hiem Moss. If Oregon can fix their perimeter defense without their sophomore point guard Jackson Shelstad sacrificing offensively, that is the best-case scenario and will likely make the Ducks a top-15 team. I’m buying into the breakout potential of this team.
Some teams that just missed the cut:
Xavier 65-1 (1.52%)
Xavier is a team I am really high on because of their floor. I think Sean Miller is a fantastic coach and brought in a great transfer class as well as getting Zach Freemantle back from injury. I am less confident, however, that Xavier has the NBA-level talent of the other teams on here.
Cincinnati 80-1 (1.23%)
I am also high on Cincinnati and have them as a top 15 team in the preseason, but as it also went with Xavier, Cincinnati has a lot of good players. I am simply less convinced that they have the NBA-level talent that a national championship team usually has. If they do have one, I’d bet it is Dan Skillings or Tyler Betsey.
Before I get back to the final team, I want to throw out that for my last team, I wanted to find a team that I think has really good upside. I do like this team more than others, but I am not buying into their NBA talent as much as others. However, I do want to acknowledge that this team has a couple of players who could be NBA guys and despite me not believing in the individual players, if you do believe in the NBA talent on this roster, I think the team could be way better than the price they’re listed at.
Syracuse 120-1 (0.83%)
I have two reasons why I think this Syracuse is being underrated not just in the market, but by media as well. The first is while I am not a huge Red Autry fan, I find it hard to believe that it will be worse in year two than it was in year one (and it wasn’t awful to begin with). The second reason is entirely just how you view some of their players.
Syracuse has two freshmen who are high-upside players. Donnie Freeman is the most notable name here and is ranked as a top 10 freshman by some recruiting sites. Elijah Moore is another freshman who I am lower on, but willing to acknowledge that his upside is very high if things click. Freeman is a 6’10 on-ball forward who is a solid ball handler and shooter. I don’t think he is a great decision-maker, but he might not have to be with Syracuse adding Jaquan Carlos.
Carlos is one of the best passers in the country and is used to playing heavy minutes with Hofstra’s thin depth last season. Carlos being on this team will equate to more quality shots for not just Freeman and Moore, but also for J.J. Starling who is a former top 20 recruit and might be this team’s leading scorer. Carlos was my favorite addition of the off-season just because I think he can really help Syracuse’s players reach their full potential.