By Jonathan Lidskin
February 14th was a monumental, but expected day for the Ohio State Men’s Basketball program. The Buckeyes made the inevitable move to fire Head Coach Chris Holtmann after almost seven full seasons in Columbus. At that point in the season, Ohio State was sitting at 14-11 (4-10) and it looked like another lost season. However, sometimes this weird thing happens in sports where an interim takes over and a team has a new life.
That’s exactly what happened later that week for Jake Diebler’s Buckeyes as they knocked off the then #1 team in the country in Purdue in what was an emotional win. While the game would’ve been a nice story in itself, Ohio State didn’t stop there. The Buckeyes won 3 of their next 4 after the Purdue game including a massive win at the buzzer in East Lansing over Michigan State. This stretch of games took Ohio State from a catastrophic season to a potential NCAA Tournament team.
What Ohio State absolutely needs to do
After a blowout win over Michigan, Ohio State has just one remaining regular season game (at Rutgers). Rutgers is currently a Quad 2 road game, but Ohio State winning out after the Michigan State win was always necessary for them to have a shot at an at-large. In addition, I’m also of the belief that the Buckeyes likely will need to pick up at least one more Quad 1 win in Minneapolis next week as well as avoid a loss below Quad 2.
Positive side of Ohio State’s resumé
Ohio State’s three Quad 1 wins might not seem like much for a team that has the downside that they do, but all three of those wins are in Quad 1A according to Torvik. The quantity is not overwhelming which is why I think picking up one more Quad 1 win is a necessity, but the committee will have a tough time ignoring the three huge wins that Ohio State has.
For reference, two seasons ago Michigan finished the season 17-14 with five Quad 1 wins and four Quad 1A wins. The Wolverines also had better predictive numbers than Ohio State currently has, but Ohio State has been climbing in that category. 2022 and 2024 are obviously not the same year in terms of the bubble, but in terms of record, it’s a decent comparison to see what the Wolverines had to do to not only get in but avoid playing in Dayton.
Negative side of Ohio State’s resumé
While Ohio State has given themselves a chance over the last three weeks, they are still out of the tournament as of today which means there have to be more negatives than positives. For the Buckeyes, the downsides come in the form of the non-conference schedule and the resumé metrics. Ohio State’s non-conference schedule is one of the interesting cases because the Buckeyes scheduled plenty of games that should’ve been good opportunities, but a lot of those teams did not end up being good. Texas A&M, UCLA and West Virginia have all had disappointing years and severely hurt the strength of Ohio State’s non-conference schedule.
Then there are the resumé metrics in Strength of Record, KPI and Wins above bubble. Ohio State entered the day 68th in Strength of Record, 52nd in KPI and 68th in Wins above bubble. Compared to some of the other bubble teams that the Buckeyes could end up comparing to, those ranks aren’t going to cut it which is why it’s not only important that Ohio State has a good week at the Big Ten Tournament.
The current B1G Tournament dilemma
So as we know, Ohio State needs to win their final game of the regular season to have a shot. If they do that and put themselves in a good position heading into the Big Ten Tournament, most scenarios that involve an Ohio State win at Rutgers result in the Buckeyes receiving either the 9 seed or the 11 seed and not the 10 seed. In fact, the only ways Ohio State can get the 10 seed is if they finish in a tie with Indiana for 10th or they finish in a 3-way tie with Minnesota and Penn State for 9th.
Now, some of you might be a tad confused as to why getting the 10 seed in my opinion is really important for Ohio State. Well, it’s more about avoiding the 8/9 game and the 11 seed than it is about getting the 10 seed for a couple of different reasons. Playing in the 8/9 game likely means a Quad 2 game to open the tournament which won’t boost the resumé a ton and then if you get that, you have to play Purdue in the quarterfinals. The 11 seed is more self-explanatory because while the Buckeyes would play Michigan who they would very likely beat, you want that extra day off.
The bottom line is that it’s still an uphill battle for Ohio State to have a shot at the NCAA Tournament. If the Buckeyes can continue to play like they have over the last couple of weeks and they get a little luck mixed in there, Jake Diebler could have his team in the NCAA Tournament.