By Sam Federman
20. Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten)
What I like: The Illini have one of the most talented rosters in all of college basketball, and certainly in the Big Ten. It all starts with Kasparas Jakucionis, who has gotten more offseason buzz than maybe anybody else in the sport. He will step in and be one of the best passers in the country on day one, and a legitimate all-around threat as a 6 foot 6 point guard. Evansville transfer Ben Humrichous was one of the most valuable players to any team last year. The Aces were 20 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court thanks to high-end shooting and creation at 6 foot 9. Brad Underwood has the Illinois program operating at such a high level, and will continue to attract and fit talent into his system. He’s hoping that Kylan Boswell’s experience at a high level can provide stability, and Tre White can give some extra energy.
Where I have questions: This frontcourt is really young and inexperienced. Morez Johnson, Tomislav Ivisic, and Carey Booth are all exciting players, but we really do have to wait and see to figure out how many, or which of the three can be a starting option for Illinois. Going from a team that started three grad students and another senior to a team relying on underclassmen as much as Illinois will could be a shock to the system. However, there’s a reason why Underwood didn’t bring in a big-time center, he trusts that he’ll be able to get enough from this group.
X-Factor: I think he’s a year away from being a true stud, but reclass freshman WIll Riley has some of the best natural scoring tools in the country. He’s 6 foot 8 but plays like a guard with the ability to create his own shot, and he rises over smaller defenders. I have no doubt that Riley will win a few games for Illinois sparking some offense, but there’s a scenario where he does much much more than that.
19. Xavier Musketeers (Big East)
What I like: Xavier’s season was dealt a death blow before it even began last year by losing Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter, but now those two return to make up a core that has tons of options. In the backcourt, Ryan Conwell should be one of the best guards in the Big East in Sean Miller’s system thanks to his ability to score from anywhere on the floor. There are so many potential ball handlers and scorers, between Conwell, Daviyon McKnight, Dante Maddox, Marcus Foster, Trey Green, and Dailyn Swain, it’s going to be a different guy every night. Swain and Green should take sophomore leaps as well, with Swain potentially being one of the best defenders in the conference. Hunter and Freemantle returning also gives this team toughness and experience that was key to Xavier’s resurgence in 2022-23.
Where I have questions: The Musketeers expected to go into the season with Lassina Traore as the starting center, but he will miss the entire season with an injury. A Freemantle/Hunter frontcourt raises some defensive questions if they use it as their primary. Outside of Swain, this backcourt isn’t particularly good defensively either. Xavier will live and die by its offense, which is fine, as it had the 7th-ranked defense in the Big East when it got a three-seed in 2023.
X-Factor: It’s been a long time since John Hugley was a super promising breakout candidate a few years ago for Pitt. He’s struggled with health, poor play, and other things, but he absolutely needs to be able to provide 20 good minutes at the five, especially on the defensive end for this Xavier team to survive the toughest battles.
18. Oregon Ducks (Big Ten)
What I like: In their freshman seasons, Jackson Shelstad and Kwame Evans Jr. each showed immense flashes as Oregon marched through an inconsistent campaign. Now sophomores, the two have the chance to be All-Big Ten players. Shelstad has helium as a potential player of the year candidate, while Evans’ impact on the defensive end and the glass will ensure Oregon continues to dominate physically. The addition of TJ Bamba, who played for a Villanova team that failed to use him for his strengths, will help the Ducks put pressure on the rim as a wing attacker. Stanford transfer Brandon Angel can also attack the rim, and gives great positional size from the three spot. Oregon has a ton of scoring options, also adding Ra’Heim Moss from Toledo to the mix in the backcourt.
Where I have questions: The Ducks have had consistent injury struggles over the past few seasons, especially in the frontcourt. Nate Bittle only played five games last year, and when he played two years ago against top opponents, he struggled badly. Oregon needed N’Faly Dante back last year to clean everything up, and it was a clear difference when he was on the floor and when he wasn’t. Behind Bittle, Oregon has Supreme Cook, who didn’t translate well defensively from the MAAC to the Big East. I expect to see Evans play some minutes at the five this year, but not a ton if Bittle stays healthy.
X-Factor: Bittle is this team’s x-factor, partially because of play and partially because of health. At his best, if he can invert the floor and allow Evans to go to work in the post while hitting perimeter shots, he can be effective. He also must stay out of foul trouble, but still function as the primary rim protector.
17. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big 12)
What I like: Texas Tech relied heavily on Pop Isaacs and Joe Tousssaint to create shots for them last year, which went fine, but could’ve been better. Now, Elijah Hawkins comes in to spray the ball around and create shots for all of the Red Raiders’ shooters. He led the Big Ten in assist rate last year, and moves the ball quicker than just about any point guard in the sport. He should free up the Tech shooters, Kerwin Walton, Kevin Overton, Chance McMillan, and more, to get great looks, while also creating inside for Devan Cambridge and JT Toppin. Toppin in particular has a chance to be one of the best players in the country. In his freshman season, he had an analytical profile resembling lottery picks, and can rebound, score, and defend at an extremely high level. Second-year transfer Darrion Williams is also a candidate for continued breakout, as he’s both a shooter and an inside threat who averaged 16 points and 9 rebounds per game over the last 12.
Where I have questions: For everything that Hawkins gives you offensively, he’s not a great defender aside from solid steal numbers. McCasland’s identity at North Texas was defense, but TTU finished with just the 9th best defense in the Big 12 last year, and dead last in block rate. Toppin will surely see minutes at the five, but the primary center is Federiko Federiko, a pogo stick type player with a limited skillset.
X-Factor: Christian Anderson is a score-first freshman point guard who can give Texas Tech a boost off the bench to diversify the Red Raider offense. He was a star in the FIBA U18 European Championship for Germany, and he drained 45% of his threes at Oak Hill last year.
16. Cincinnati Bearcats (Big 12)
What I like: Cincinnati might have more good players than any other team in the country. It starts with Dan Skillings, who had a massive March, averaging nearly 17 points through the final month of the season into the NIT. He’s a dynamic 6 foot 6 scorer who has many different ways to beat you, and adds excellent off-ball defense. The Bearcats also return both point guards, Jizzle James and Day Day Thomas, who showed plenty of flashes in their first season at the Division I level. Both had some ups and downs, but having two of them makes it much easier to deal with. Simas Lukosius and CJ Fredrick add elite shooting from the wing, while Aziz Bandaogo cleans up everything around the rim and is a premiere lob threat. Watching the Bearcats in the Big 12 Tournament and NIT, it became clear that if they could return pieces, they were an offseason of development away from being a real threat. That, along with the addition of Connor Hickman, a stud two-way guard from Bradley, Tyler Betsey, an advanced freshman, and more, has Wes Miller’s team in position for a return to the NCAA Tournament.
Where I have questions: I’m putting a lot of faith in Miller, this staff, and the players to actually develop and play well together. Cincinnati went 7-11 in the Big 12 last year, including losses to West Virginia and Oklahoma State. They were clearly a tier away from the NCAA Tournament, and this ranking has them jumping right above a tier or two, which could be overambitious. Skillings and both point guards shot poorly from three last year, and Bandaogo is a non-shooter. If nobody takes a step forward, spacing could be problematic, and the Bearcats will have to sacrifice defense to play Lukosius and Fredrick together more than they’d like to.
X-Factor: I was never the biggest fan of Dillon Mitchell at Texas, but now that we know what and who he is as a player, expectations can be reset, and a role emerges for him at Cincinnati. He needs to rebound, defend, and impact the game with his athleticism, which fits his skillset.
15. Florida Gators (SEC)
What I like: The Gators were the worst offensive rebounding team in the SEC in Todd Golden’s first season, but he found the identity last year and they finished top ten in the country. Yes, Tyrese Samuel is gone, but Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh are back, while Sam Alexis and Reuben Chinyelu add more beef to the frontcourt. Scoring on the inside against these Gator bigs, even without Micah Handlogten, will be challenging, as they have plenty of rim protection. Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard each had offensive ratings above 115 last season, and return to Gainesville to spearhead this high-powered perimeter offense alongside FAU transfer Alijah Martin. The former Owl can help defensively along with taking some ball handling and scoring load off of Clayton’s plate.
Where I have questions: Walter Clayton is not a point guard, but he probably can be one. At Iona, he played as a combo guard next to Elijah Joiner and then Daniss Jenkins, and he exploded for the Gators once Zyon Pullin came back into the lineup. He’ll have to play at the one this year, and Florida needs him to slide in seamlessly as the All-SEC caliber player that he was as a combo guard last year. Backcourt defense and depth is also a concern, as there is very little proven production beyond the starting group.
X-Factor: I feel like half of the “x-factors” that I’ve written are international, late signing, or reclass freshmen, but I’ll continue that trend with Urban Klavzar. If he hits, he’s a point guard that adds depth to the rotation and allows Clayton to slide off the ball in certain lineups, accentuating his shooting ability.
14. Marquette Golden Eagles (Big East)
What I like: Kam Jones has a chance to be the Big East’s leading scorer and Player of the Year. He’ll have the ball in his hands a ton, acting as Marquette’s primary initiator, running the pick-and-roll and looking for his shot. He’s a career 38% three-point shooter who averaged 17 points per game last season, evolving as a playmaker through the years as well. Chase Ross will finally have a bigger role to step into, while David Joplin and Stevie Mitchell, two of the country’s elite glue guys, also come back into the picture. Ross is an excellent athlete who showed flashes of stardom over his first two seasons, while Mitchell and Joplin’s stability provides a high floor for this group.
Where I have questions: Without Oso Ighodaro, Tyler Kolek, and presumably Sean Jones, Marquette loses a few archetypes that were very important to the team’s success over the last few years. Even with returning the star power on the wing, there’s no physical center type that can bang in the low post on both ends like Ighodaro, let alone his extremely unique passing game that gave Marquette a new element offensively. Speaking of passing, Kolek created so many opportunities for his teammates, and Jones’ speed generated plenty of advantages. Marquette will have some new wrinkles in the offense to replace this production.
X-Factor: Without Ighodaro, Ben Gold is going to be Marquette’s starting center, and that’s an odd idea for some. He’s a stretch five who doesn’t protect the rim or rebound extremely well, but will allow Marquette to space the floor in a much different way than it has in the past. Regardless, the Golden Eagles need him to take a step forward physically against some of the top bigs in the Big East.
13. Purdue Boilermakers (Big Ten)
What I like: Braden Smith might be the best passer in college basketball, and even without Zach Edey on the floor, having him back makes Purdue instantly one of the best teams in the Big Ten. He’s an elite shooter and navigates space so well in the pick-and-roll. Purdue’s zoom actions will stay, even if the screens won’t be as good, Smith will be able to score and pass off of them anyway. Fletcher Loyer is back for year three next to Smith, and Trey Kaufman-Renn is bound to take a massive step forward with the usage vacated in the frontcourt. TKR is more than capable of scoring in the low post, and he can bring a different element to Purdue’s defense. Finally, Myles Colvin and Camden Heide must take steps forward on the wing.
Where I have questions: Last season, Edey was so good at keeping opposing offenses away from the rim, even without blocking shots. Purdue finished 2nd in the Big Ten in 2P% defense and first in defensive free throw rate. The swap to Will Berg and Daniel Jacobsen as the plodding 7 foot giants will throw a wrench in that. This is made even worse by the fact that losing Lance Jones means Purdue has a void to fill defensively on the perimeter. All of these fears were exploited heavily in the exhibition game against Creighton.
X-Factor: Gicarri Harris and CJ Cox are two freshman guards that will see plenty of playing time. When Smith or Loyer needs a rest, or when the Boilers go small, we’ll see the freshman duo on the floor. Harris is an exciting prospect who fits Purdue’s culture of doing the little things, while Cox can get his own shot and defend the ball.
12. Baylor Bears (Big 12)
What I like: Scott Drew has been one of the best coaches in the country for a long time, and he has yet another extremely talented backcourt in Waco. Leading off, he brings back Jayden Nunn and Langston Love, who each shot well over 40% from three last season, while bringing in Jeremy Roach to man the point. Roach is an experienced point guard who has played in, and won big games for Duke over the last four seasons. He’s not a superstar, but he’s a winning player with the talent to take over a game if he needs to, and will step into a leadership role for Baylor. The most talented player on the team is freshman VJ Edgecombe, who has a freakish first step off the wing. Norchad Omier also comes in to steady Baylor on the glass and bring more toughness.
Where I have questions: There’s a brain drain around Baylor basketball over the last few seasons. In Jerome Tang’s final season before leaving for Kansas State, the Bears were a top 15 defense in the country, and had been outside the top 30 just twice since 2015. Each of the last two years, Baylor has ranked outside the top 70 in defense. How much of this can be attributed to Tang versus the personnel? Then, with John Jakus leaving for FAU this year, it’s fair to question whether Baylor’s assistant drain is beginning to run low.
X-Factor: Josh Ojianwuna is likely to be Baylor’s starting center, or at least play a lot of minutes there when Omier plays at the power forward spot. The Bears need to hit on his internal development, as well as getting production from Jalen Celestine and Jason Asemota in the frontcourt in order to have enough depth for a run.
11. North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC)
What I like: Superstar RJ Davis needs no introduction. He’s been around the block for a while and blossomed into an All-American last season after the departure of Caleb Love. Everybody knows how good he is, but people may not know how good the rest of the backcourt and wings are. Seth Trimble has gotten a ton of positive buzz this offseason, including a 30 point performance in the exhibition against Memphis. Ian Jackson and Drake Powell are two of the best freshmen in the country, with Jackson’s explosiveness and scoring ability and Powell’s elite functional athleticism on both ends as hallmarks. Finally, sharpshooter Cade Tyson comes in from Belmont, and despite a poor shooting night against Memphis, it was clear that Hubert Davis has tons of actions to get him open or use him to create space for others.
Where I have questions: Losing Armando Bacot is really difficult because he gobbled up every single rebound and gave UNC a legitimate post-threat for five years. This season, the hodgepodge bunch of Jalen Washington, James Brown, Ven-Allen Lubin, and Tyzhaun Claude are going to have to string together more than 40 minutes, as they’ll see all of the minutes at the five, and some at the four. Washington is the one I’m most excited for, as he is much more mobile than Bacot but still has great size and looked vastly improved in the exhibition.
X-Factor: Elliot Cadeau must be more aggressive. Teams will not guard him if he doesn’t prove to be a capable scoring threat, and he’s not playable if he’s not dragging some defensive attention away from his teammates. If North Carolina reaches its ceiling, it means that Cadeau becomes a 30+% three-point shooter on respectable volume.